The annual Academy Awards bring intense speculation across major categories, yet the crucial screenplay awards often receive less spotlight. This article aims to rectify that oversight by providing an in-depth look at the original and adapted screenplay races, identifying the significant trends and potential frontrunners. From acclaimed veterans eyeing their first win to foreign-language narratives defying expectations, the competition this year is multifaceted and intriguing.
The Oscars Screenplay Contest: Unpacking Key Trends and Frontrunners
As the Oscar season approaches its zenith, the screenplay categories – Original Screenplay and Adapted Screenplay – are generating considerable buzz among cinephiles and industry experts. On February 4, 2026, industry insights revealed five critical aspects shaping these contests. Filmmaker Paul Thomas Anderson, with his extensive history of nominations (five for screenplay and 14 overall) but no wins, is a strong contender for the Adapted Screenplay award, especially given his multiple nominations this year for his latest work. His film, One Battle After Another, which features Leonardo DiCaprio, is considered a leading candidate. Meanwhile, Ryan Coogler's Sinners, boasting an impressive 16 nominations, carries significant momentum, making it a formidable force in the Original Screenplay category. Historically, the Academy has seen surprising wins in these writing categories, often rewarding lesser-known works or those considered 'dark horses,' such as Billy Bob Thornton's Sling Blade in 1997 and Mark Boal's The Hurt Locker in 2010. This year, Jafar Panahi's Persian-language film It Was Just an Accident, nominated for both Original Screenplay and International Film, presents an underdog narrative, though foreign-language films traditionally face an uphill battle in these categories, with only six wins in history, predominantly for original screenplays. Lastly, a notable trend highlights the advantage held by 'hyphenates' – writer-directors who often command both writing and directing nominations. This year, the majority of nominated films were either written or co-written by their directors, reinforcing the idea that a singular artistic vision often resonates strongly with Academy voters.
The Oscar screenplay race is a fascinating microcosm of the broader cinematic landscape. It underscores the Academy's appreciation for profound storytelling, whether from established masters or emerging voices. The consistent recognition of writer-directors highlights the power of a unified creative vision, while the persistent challenge for foreign-language films in these categories suggests an ongoing dialogue about representation and accessibility within the awards. Ultimately, the outcomes will reflect not only the excellence of individual scripts but also the evolving tastes and priorities of the Academy.